Stefan Rahmstorf is a leading climate scientist whom I greatly admire and respect. I have frequently read his writings at realclimate.org for many, many years. Here is a brief summary of his background:
Stefan Rahmstorf (born 22 February 1960) is a German oceanographer and climatologist. Since 2000, he has been a Professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University. He received his Ph.D. in oceanography from Victoria University of Wellington (1990). His work focuses on the role of ocean currents in climate change.[1] He was one of the lead authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.[1]
Rahmstorf is a co-founder of the blog Real Climate, which has been described by Nature as one of the top-5 science blogs in 2006,[2] and included among the 15 best environmental websites by Time in 2008.[3] He also co-founded the German blog KlimaLounge.[4] KlimaLoungewon the 3rd prize of the science blog award of 2013.[5] He is a frequent contributor of articles on climate and climate change in the popular press, some of which are internationally syndicated via Project Syndicate.[6] He writes a regular column in the German environmental magazine Zeo2,[7] and has published the children's science book Wolken, Wind und Wetter (Clouds, Wind, and Weather) on weather and climate.[8][9] The book was selected as Environmental Book of the Month for January 2012 by the Deutsche Umweltstiftung.[10] In addition, it was later voted Environmental Book of the Year 2012.[11]
Rahmstorf has commented on climate change and climate policy on TV and radio.[12][13][14] He was portrayed as one of the world's 10 leading climate scientists by the Financial Times in 2009.[15] The ARD presented a portrait of Rahmstorf in their prime news magazine Tagesthemen when he received the Deutscher Umweltmedienpreis (German Environmental Media Award) in 2007.[16]
Work[edit]
The University of Flensburg found that among all climate scientists from Germany, Rahmstorf published the largest number of studies which ranked amongst the most-cited in the scientific literature during the years 1994–2013.[17] Rahmstorf was from 2004 till 2013 a member of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU).[18]
Awards and honors[edit]
- Fellow of the American Geophysical Union (2010)[19]
- Along with other authors of the IPCC AR4 report, he was honored by the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC, shared with Al Gore.[20]
- Honorary Fellow of the University of Wales (2007)[21]
- German Environmental Media Award (Deutscher Umweltmedienpreis), for his work on scientific accurate reporting anthropogenic climate change and impacts (2007)[22]
- Centennial Fellowship Award from the James S. McDonnell Foundation, research grant of $1 million (1999)[23]
Hopefully, you can see why I hold him in such high regard.
He wrote:
A quick quiz
Do you conclude…
(1) that humans cannot change the climate?
(2) that we do not know whether humans are to blame for global warming?
(3) that global warming will not have any severe consequences?
(4) that we cannot stop global warming?
The answer
Not one of these answers is correct. None of these conclusions would be logical.
He responds to all of the possible “answers” and shows why none of them works.
While responding to (2), he writes:
Imagine there has been a forest fire. The police have extensive evidence that it was arson. They know the place where the fire began. They found traces of fire accelerants. Witnesses observed a man whose car was parked nearby. In his trunk the police finds bottles with fire accelerants, and in his house they find even more of it. He has been convicted for arson several times before. Plus some further evidence. In court, he defends himself: forest fires have always occurred lit by lightning, even before there was any man on Earth. Therefore he must be innocent. Does the argument convince you?
The evidence for the human cause of global warming is overwhelming. This is why there has been a consensus among climate researchers for a long time, and almost every scientific academy on the planet has come to the same conclusion. The most important evidence: when it gets warmer, the energy has to come from somewhere (1st law of thermodynamics). It can only come through the radiation budget of our planet. (No, Rick Perry, the energy does not come out of the ocean. To the contrary, measurements show heat is going into the oceans). The changes in this energy balance are quite well known and are shown near the front of any IPCC report – see Fig. 1. The biggest factor is the increase in CO2 concentration as well as a few other greenhouse gases, also added by human activities. The incoming solar radiation has changed just a tiny bit in comparison – since 1950, by the way, it has even decreased and thus offset a small part of the human-caused warming – hence humans have probably caused more warming than is observed (best estimate is 110% of observed warming).
Even more alarming, he writes regarding (3):
We still have enough ice on Greenland and Antarctica to raise the sea level around the world by 65 meters. Both ice masses are losing ice more and more quickly. The West Antarctic has probably already crossed its tipping point and is unstable. Greenland could soon follow.
He explains more here:
We read these types of statements consistently in this document.
He informs us that one thing we seem to keep learning is that we consistently underestimate the impact of carbon dioxide emissions. From a mathematical perspective, this is because it is nonlinear. From a perspective of science, this is due to forcings. He explains why the IPCC is too conservative: As a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists (due to my master’s degree in mathematics), I remembered what a privilege it was to be able to listen to Dr. Rahmstorf and Dr. Mann and others discussing their findings immediately before an IPCC report was coming out. An opportunity to ask questions or participate was present, but compared to these amazing science experts, I knew my job was to listen carefully and pay attention ! Now, another amazing hero of mine is Dr. James A Hansen. I don’t even know where to begin about how amazing he is; however, almost everybody who follows climate change seriously knows about him and his work. He writes (March 22, 2016) : "Last Summer, James -the pioneer of modern climate science = pieced together a research-based revelation: |
In 2014, when scientists were surveyed , there was a prominent concern that the IPCC was underestimating sea level rise.
The Vision Prize results revealed that despite the much higher sea level rise estimates this time around, the survey participants are worried that the IPCC is still underestimating future sea level rise. 41 percent responded that it's likely or very likely that sea level rise will exceed the IPCC highest estimate, and 71 percent answering that it's at least as likely as not. Conversely, only 5 percent responded that it's likely sea level rise will be less than the IPCC lowest estimate, and 83 percent called this scenario unlikely.
I contemplate what the world will look like in the year 2100 after we reap the results of the climate change that we sowed. There are many important and scary consequences of climate change. Sea level rise is among the worst. I think about the world we will be leaving those who are yet to be born. I find life is more rewarding when I think about others. When I was a kid, I always was excited about what I would get when I opened my presents for Christmas. Things ! Things for me ! As I got older, I found that finding my fulfillment and happiness in the things I got did not work. There was always going to be something better and nicer that I did not have. Whatever I got would always lose its luster. I found that my own life was so much happier and more rewarding when I could make a difference in the lives of others, especially children, especially people of color, and the vulnerable. It made me feel good if I could make somebody else feel better or be happier. When people were hurting or crying, upset, then being there for them and building them up and helping put them back together made me happier. It was true whether I was noticed or not. Life is about others. Life is not about self or things. I think about the people who are yet to be born and the world we will leave them.
